Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has slightly increased India’s GDP growth forecast to 7.5% for the current financial year (FY 2025–26), citing strong domestic demand as the main driver of economic expansion.
Earlier, in December 2025, Fitch had projected India’s GDP growth at 7.4% for the same fiscal year.
Growth Outlook for FY27
In its Global Economic Outlook – March 2026, Fitch also revised its forecast for FY 2026–27. The agency now expects India’s economy to grow by 6.7%, slightly higher than its earlier estimate of 6.4%.
According to the report, consumer spending and investment are expected to remain the primary contributors to economic growth. Consumer spending is estimated to rise by 8.6%, while investment growth is projected at 6.9% during the current fiscal year.
Global Economic Outlook
Fitch has projected global GDP growth at 2.6% in 2026, assuming that geopolitical tensions—particularly conflict involving Iran—do not cause a sustained surge in global energy prices.
Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings, stated that if global oil prices rise to around $100 per barrel and remain at that level, it could create a major global supply shock and negatively impact economic growth worldwide.
Signs of Slowdown but Resilient Economy
Fitch noted that there are early signs of slowing economic activity in India during January and February, but overall the economy remains resilient.
One positive indicator is that credit growth in India continues to remain in double digits, supporting economic expansion.
However, the agency expects growth to moderate in the first half of FY 2026–27 due to rising inflation, which may reduce real incomes and limit consumer spending.
Recent GDP Performance
India’s GDP growth showed a slight slowdown in recent quarters. Growth in the December quarter was recorded at 7.8% year-on-year, compared with 8.4% in the September quarter.
Despite this moderation, strong domestic consumption and investment activity continue to support India’s economic momentum.
Significance
The upward revision by Fitch Ratings reflects continued confidence in India’s economic fundamentals. Strong domestic demand, investment activity, and stable financial conditions are expected to keep India among the fastest-growing major economies in the world.